Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Signs of economic recovery in the offing:Green Shoots !!!

Unless you work in finance or follow markets closely, the date September 15, 2008, will probably mean little to you. That was the day the long bull market came to a halt with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The unthinkable had happened. Wall Street was at the brink. The ensuing months brought more bad news as markets tumbled and we saw a worldwide economic downturn. Some called it a severe recession while others used the dreaded “D” word. However, most market gurus and several prominent economists now agree that the worst has past and there are signs of recovery in the offing: green shoots they are called.

What the heck is a green shoot?

I admit that it took me a moment or two on my morning drive while listening to Bloomberg to understand what this phrase meant in an economic context. I am fond of the English language and admire those who take the time to use it properly. It should not be surprising therefore that I am alternately bemused and annoyed by some of the catch phrases and “buzz words” that we so readily adopt. I do not twitter, blog or text but do enjoy well written articles.

Ok, I admit that I am a devotee of The Economist.

That publication recently reported that in a single week there were 68 references to economic green shoots in the world’s major media. This compares to none at the end of 2008. While constant use of this catch phrase gets more than a little tiresome with each passing day it is actually very good news. There are “early signs of economic recovery” (aka green shoots) which means that better news will surely follow. Changing the news cycle to positive reporting on the economy from what we have had is surely the first step to changing attitudes and creating confidence. Confidence is what we all need to have, in order to right the economy.

Here is some encouraging information on the economy:

 CMHC predicts that the Canadian housing market as a whole will stabilize in 2009 and rebound in 2010.

 CMHC forecasts that the Kelowna market will stabilize in 2009 and show modest recovery in 2010.

 The average British Columbia residential resale selling price in 2009 is expected to moderate to $452,000 which is down modestly from $454,599 in 2008 but well above the 2006 figure of $390,693.

 Major stock market indices have rebounded from lows in March 2009.

 Brokers anecdotally report their investor clients are exhibiting increased confidence.

Yes, there are still some decidedly negative economic indicators. Additionally there are others that provide a mixed outlook for the immediate future. Full recovery will not take place overnight. We are not where we want to be now but I am confident that we are on the right path.

All those green shoots can’t be wrong!

Guest Contributor:

Ronald N.Palmer, CIM, AMP
President / Taylor Capital Inc.
101-1865 Dilworth Drive, Suite 626,
Kelowna, BC, V1Y 9T1
Phone: 250-446-2868
Fax: 604-628-3779

Jerry Dombowsky
Premier Hotels and Motels - The Connections to close the deal
#6-3185 Via Centrale, Kelowna, British Columbia V1V 2A7
Phone: 250.717.1886
Fax: 250.765.0577
Toll-Free: 1.866.765.0579
Email: jerry@pcrealty.ca
Web: http://www.premierhotelsandmotels.com/